Mallory McDonald

Rick Perry: Where He was, is, and Will Go

Blurb: After an infamous run for the 2012 presidential campaign, current Texas governor Rick Perry is among those who are suspected to run again in 2016. But where is Perry now and what kind of candidate will he be in 2016?

Rick Perry’s 2012 presidential campaign can be summed up in one simple word, “oops.” In a debate where the current Texas governor couldn’t remember the third department he would cut, “oops” was all he could come up with. But, there is was more to Perry’s campaign than that, both positives and negatives. Now two years later, Perry seems to be singing a different tune. For example his speech at the Conservative Political Action Committee’s annual conference, which had over a thousand people on their feet, definitely holds promise for the future and what’s more—he didn’t say oops.

According to former Chief of Staff Ray Sullivan, Perry and his supporters learned exactly what it takes to run for president and will be better prepared for the future. Perry’s biggest success was raising money, something he can only increase from. Sullivan, who isn’t currently working for Perry, says there were two major hurdles that Perry couldn’t overcome in 2012: the Governor’s back surgery and the lack of preparation. But, now those hurdles seem more than surmountable. However, whether or not his 2012 performance will overshadow the future is yet to be determined, but still much has changed.

Rick Perry isn’t a different candidate, but rather more experienced in the presidential ring. As a social and fiscal conservative, Perry isn’t likely to change his platform, but rather have more time to define it. He now knows what it is like to prepare for a presidential campaign, he’s fully recovered from surgery, he has a strong record of job creation in Texas, and he has a solid basis to raise funds. Furthermore, Republicans who run for a second time have historically been successful at obtaining the nomination as Romney, Reagan, and Nixon are examples. Ray Sullivan says that Republican voters like to elect candidates they have known and not the newest and shiniest “toy.” Furthermore, Perry will no longer be governor which will free up his time to devote to the campaign. On a lighter note, some political commenters even joke that his new glasses help his improving image as well. For Perry, the most important change he needs to make is better public perception.

As it’s Perry’s second round, his opponents are likely to underestimate him. In 2012 Perry quickly become the front runner and was just as quickly attacked. Come 2016, being a little underestimated could work to Perry’s benefit. With less attacks during the primaries, Perry is more likely to become the Republican nominee.

Sullivan says, “the expectations will be more modest than they were in 2011, therefore much easier to exceed and much easier to impress and surprise people.”

Sullivan also claims that, “Texas is the mecca of opportunity and job creation,” and as Texas’ Governor Perry can site this as his handy work. Perry’s record of success has only increased in Texas, according to Sullivan.

Proof of his Texas’ success was confirmed to PolitiFact.com by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics spokeswoman Cheryl Abbot. She said, “”Texas has been a very powerful job creator; during the period, the state created 1.75 million net jobs – and that was equal to one-third of the net jobs created nationwide.” The period Abbot refers to is 2003-2013.

SMU political science professor Joseph Kobylka expands further on Perry’s appeal citing his straight talking and down to earth demeanor. Perry also has the allure of Texas, and a kind of Bush legacy working for him as well.

Not to mention, Perry’s low taxes have garnered him praise in luring businesses to the Lone Star State, with insurance giant State Farm as an example. CNBC rakes Texas as the No. 1 state for business and has held the “Best State for Business” from Chief Executive magazine eight years straight, according to Forbes.com.

Speaking about present day Perry, Senior SMU history, english, and political science major Brandon Bub says, “I feel he’s consciously been staying out of the spotlight because he’s grown more aware that the longer it centers on him the more likely it is he’s going to make front-page news for all the wrong reasons.”

While Bub makes a valid point, Perry has had two public appearance successes recently. His Foot Hood speech offered support and comfort after the tragedy. And at his CPAC speech he spoke passionately on states’ rights, and a redirection of federal government to concentrate on the issues it should and stay out of say, healthcare. All signs point to Perry changing the way the public sees him. Since 2012, he has been proving to Americans that there’s more to the man than simply good hair.

But, Perry won’t be the only one to watch in 2016. Sullivan says, “the field seems to be very open and spread out.”

Most notably, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush are a few potential candidates. Kobylka and Sullivan agree that these men will be Perry most formidable opponents. Perry needs to find his place and be the only one who can fulfill his down to earth, Texan, true man of the South mold. Jeb Bush, as a fellow southern and as a Bush will be his biggest competitor in that sense. Whereas Rand Paul will likely run as more of a libertarian candidate, appealing to voters who aren’t as committed to the GOP’s social views, according to Bub.

But, will voters be able to get over the “oops” moment?

“Well that’s the big question,” Sullivan says. But he says it’s possible with Perry’s “performance on the stump and sound policy and principle” Sullivan thinks it can happen.

As of today, there isn’t much but speculation and opinion. Bub thinks, “Perry’s got an uphill battle if he gets into the race, for sure. Whether or not his past experience can effect the same kind of improvement that Romney saw between his 08 and 12 bids remains to be seen.”

Just how much can the American public forgive? Only time will tell.